Nigeria’s economy is set to experience greater stability in 2026, supported by continued reforms, improved policy coordination, and sectoral diversification, according to the 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook Report presented by EnterpriseNGR in Lagos on Thursday, January 22, 2026.
The report, developed in collaboration with EY-Parthenon, highlights Nigeria’s transition from an adjustment phase to a more stable economic stage.
It notes progress in fiscal management, foreign exchange policy, and investment climate, all contributing to enhanced macroeconomic confidence.
EnterpriseNGR’s Head of Research, Omotayo Muritala, said the economy is projected to grow by 4.49 percent in 2026, driven by expansions in services, agriculture, trade, and telecommunications, alongside modest improvements in the oil sector.
Key Findings
The report identifies several factors underpinning the projected stability:
Continued foreign exchange market reforms enhancing liquidity and predictability.
Fiscal discipline under the 2025–2027 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework.
Private sector investment, particularly in refining, energy, and digital services.
Projected oil output stability at approximately 1.5 million barrels per day, with potential upside if output reaches 1.7–1.8 million barrels.
However, the report warns that global economic uncertainties, tight international monetary policies, and domestic inflationary pressures could pose risks to the growth outlook.
At the report presentation, EnterpriseNGR CEO Obi Ibekwe described 2026 as a “post-adjustment inflection point,” noting that inflation moderation and improved investor confidence reflect the early gains of recent reforms.
She stressed that sustaining these results requires policy consistency and transparency.
Policy analysts cited the success of forex unification, fiscal recalibration, and financial sector oversight as key achievements. They emphasised that sustained investment in infrastructure, technology, and human capital is essential to maintain stability.
The report highlights opportunities in fintech, logistics, trade, and digital services, which have shown resilience and growth potential. Expanding these sectors is seen as critical to diversifying the economy and reducing reliance on hydrocarbons.
EnterpriseNGR’s outlook recommends continued reform momentum to solidify stability, encourage domestic and foreign investment, and enhance inclusive growth. Policymakers are urged to prioritise structural reforms, strengthen capital markets, and improve productivity in non-oil sectors.
Nigeria’s 2026 macroeconomic trajectory indicates a period of relative stability and growth, contingent on sustained reforms and effective policy implementation.
Investors, businesses, and government actors are advised to align strategies with the projected outlook to capitalise on emerging opportunities and support long-term economic resilience.
