Analysts have projected that Nigeria’s economy will build on ongoing reforms and exhibit greater macroeconomic stability in 2026, according to the 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook Report presented by EnterpriseNGR in Lagos on Thursday, January 22, 2026. The outlook flags positive trends in growth, inflation and confidence indicators, while urging sustained policy focus.
The report, developed with strategic support from professional services firm EY-Parthenon, is themed “Reform-Led Stability: Boosting Confidence, Unlocking Sustainable Growth.”
It outlines recent achievements in economic adjustment and forward-looking projections that reflect a transition from an adjustment phase to a stabilisation stage in macroeconomic performance.
According to Omotayo Muritala, Head of Research at EnterpriseNGR, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is forecast to reach approximately 4.49 percent in 2026, supported by diversified expansion in services, agriculture, trade and telecommunications sectors. The oil industry is also expected to make modest gains as security and operational stability improve.
The EnterpriseNGR outlook cites several key drivers of projected stability: enhancing foreign exchange market efficiency, continuity in fiscal reforms under the 2025-2027 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, stable crude output near 1.5 million barrels per day, and growing private sector investments, particularly in refining and services.
In a “best-case” scenario, the report notes that if crude oil production increases to between 1.7 and 1.8 million barrels per day and foreign exchange inflows strengthen through remittances and portfolio capital, more robust growth could materialise.
Still, the report acknowledges downside risks related to global economic slowdowns, tight global monetary policy, elevated inflation and potential policy reversals that could weaken confidence.
At the presentation, Obi Ibekwe, Chief Executive Officer of EnterpriseNGR, said Nigeria is entering a post-adjustment “inflection point”, where key indicators such as inflation, foreign exchange volatility and growth expectations are beginning to respond positively to policy actions.
She emphasised that credibility and consistency of reform implementation will be critical to sustaining these gains.
Policy analysts note that recent reform measures including foreign exchange unification, fiscal recalibration and strengthened financial sector oversight have been challenging for households and businesses but are now yielding tangible results.
Continued improvements in investor confidence, liquidity and market transparency are essential to attract long-term capital and support infrastructure investment.
The outlook also identifies growth opportunities beyond hydrocarbons, with expanding contributions from fintech, technology services, trade and logistics, sectors that have shown resilience and dynamism.
The report projects that sustained investment in these areas could further anchor inclusive growth.
Despite the optimism, the EnterpriseNGR report cautions that growth prospects remain contingent on consistent policy execution, improvements in food supply systems, stronger energy market performance, deeper capital markets and enhanced security along vital economic corridors.
The outlook underscores that continued momentum in reforms could support Nigeria’s goal of transforming stabilisation into durable and inclusive growth, laying a foundation for increased investment, job creation and improved welfare.
It highlights the importance of delivering on structural policies that promote diversification and productivity enhancements, especially in non-oil sectors.
As Nigeria approaches the midpoint of its current reform cycle, the EnterpriseNGR 2026 outlook provides an evidence base for policymakers, investors and private-sector actors to align strategies that reinforce economic stability and unlock long-term growth.
Sustained commitment to reform, enhanced investor engagement and proactive policy coordination are central to realising the projected economic trajectory for 2026.
