Nigeria’s oil sector lost an estimated N1.76 trillion in potential crude oil revenue because the country did not meet its production quota set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries from January 2025 to January 2026, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has assigned a crude oil production quota of 1.5 million barrels per day to Nigeria, reflecting the country’s status as a member of the global oil cartel.
Meeting this quota is linked to maintaining Nigeria’s share of oil export volumes and associated revenue.
Data from Nigeria’s upstream regulator show that the nation’s crude oil production frequently fell below the 1.5 million barrels per day quota during nine months of 2025 and in January 2026, even as global crude prices remained moderately strong.
In January 2025, Nigeria’s production exceeded the quota slightly at 1.54 million barrels per day, and output also marginally exceeded the target in June and July 2025.
However, production dipped below the quota in February, March, April, May, August, September, October, November, and December of 2025.
The shortfalls ranged from as little as 10,000 barrels per day to as much as 110,000 barrels per day, with September recording the largest deficit.
Cumulatively over the nine months, total shortfalls amounted to roughly 18.7 million barrels. An additional shortfall of about 1.27 million barrels was recorded in January 2026.
Average crude oil prices over the period under review, based on data from the Central Bank of Nigeria for Bonny Light crude, were about $72.08 per barrel.
Multiplied by the cumulative production shortfall, the unrealised revenue was estimated at approximately $1.31 billion. At an average exchange rate of N1,353 per dollar, this translated to roughly N1.76 trillion in lost potential revenue.
Despite the production shortfalls, Nigeria’s total oil production for 2025 reached about 530.41 million barrels, generating gross revenue of around N55.5 trillion at the same average price and exchange rate.
