Nigeria’s manufacturing sector is poised for strengthened performance in 2026, but industry stakeholders say its ability to transition from recent recovery to sustained expansion will depend on effective execution of key reforms, macroeconomic stability and enhanced policy implementation, experts told Vanguard News.
The sector gained modest momentum in the second half of 2025, raising cautious optimism about future growth.
Effective tax incentives and policy execution will be crucial in boosting output, with stakeholders noting that the new tax laws implemented from January 1, 2026, could deliver relief and incentives that strengthen competitiveness if properly executed.
Dr. Oluwasegun Osidipe, Director of Research and Economic Policy at the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), projected real manufacturing growth of 3.1 percent in 2026 and a contribution of around 10.2 percent to real GDP, provided that incentives under the tax reforms are fully operationalised and supportive credit conditions prevail.
Osidipe pointed to improved exchange rate stability, a projected naira appreciation, lower headline inflation and anticipated interest rate reductions as conditions that could spur increased production, capacity utilisation and investment in the sector.
He underscored the removal of multiple levies and the need for government patronage to bolster local manufacturing demand.
Macroeconomic stability is another pillar of projected growth, according to George Onafowokan, Managing Director of Coleman Technical Industries and chairman of MAN’s Ogun State branch.
He cited recent stability in the naira, declining inflation trends and a solid economic growth foundation as positive signals for manufacturers. However, he said full benefits in 2026 will require timely implementation of pending fiscal policy measures.
Experts also emphasised continued reform momentum as critical. Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said moderate optimism about the economic outlook is justified if inflation continues to ease, non‑oil sectors expand and monetary policy supports credit growth.
But he warned that insecurity, high energy and logistics costs, and fiscal constraints could still temper growth prospects if not addressed.
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) also described 2026 as a potential year for reaping reform dividends, urging enhanced credit flows to the private sector, infrastructure expansion and inclusive policy execution as levers for broader benefits to industry and households.
Stakeholders say sustained policy consistency, targeted incentives and improved access to affordable financing will be essential for turning recent gains into long‑term competitiveness, especially as Nigeria seeks to deepen local production, reduce reliance on imports and attract foreign capital into manufacturing.
Manufacturers and policymakers will focus on implementing fiscal and industrial strategies, stabilising macroeconomic fundamentals and fostering an enabling environment to support growth throughout 2026 and beyond.
