Civil society groups, lawyers and opposition figures have rejected the suggestion that the All Progressives Congress (APC) is assured of remaining in power beyond 2031.
The reactions followed a declaration by Senator Abdul’Aziz Yari, Director-General of the APC Presidential Campaign Council, that the ruling party would continue to govern Nigeria beyond 2031.
Those who criticised the statement argued that while the APC has every right to seek successive electoral victories, no political party can claim ownership of Nigeria’s political future.
Executive Director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), Auwal Rafsanjani, described Yari’s position as partisan optimism that should not be presented as a predetermined electoral outcome.
According to Rafsanjani, Nigerians alone have the constitutional power to determine who governs the country through credible and competitive elections.
He said political parties should therefore avoid statements capable of creating the impression that future elections had already been decided.
Rafsanjani pointed to the recent Osun State governorship election as evidence that political dominance does not guarantee electoral victory.
He noted that even a governing party with extensive structures, influential personalities and substantial campaign machinery could lose an election if voters decided otherwise.
He urged the APC and other political parties to focus their campaigns on issues affecting Nigerians, including insecurity, unemployment, poverty, inflation, corruption and deteriorating public services.
According to him, the performance of any government should determine whether citizens choose to renew its mandate.
He also warned against using incumbency, state resources, intimidation, vote-buying or manipulation of electoral institutions to secure political dominance.
Rafsanjani called on INEC, security agencies and other government institutions to maintain neutrality throughout the electoral process.
Human rights lawyer, Idris Faro, also criticised the declaration, arguing that electoral victories are determined by voters rather than political pronouncements.
Faro said a politician confident in his party’s performance should highlight its achievements and allow citizens to determine whether those achievements deserve another mandate.
He added that Nigeria’s political history showed the danger of assuming that present dominance would automatically translate into future victories.
ActionAid Nigeria Country Director, Dr Andrew Mamedu, similarly maintained that no politician or political party could guarantee victory in 2027 or subsequent elections.
Mamedu said the priority should be ensuring that Nigerians participate in free, fair and credible elections.
He, however, offered another interpretation of Yari’s statement, saying it could challenge the APC to improve its performance and implement policies that positively affect citizens.
He warned, nevertheless, that any attempt to interpret the declaration as an intention to retain power through illegitimate means would be unacceptable.
Mamedu urged Nigerians not to become discouraged by predictions of predetermined election results, stressing that citizens must continue to participate in elections.
National Chairman of the Because Of Our Tomorrow (BOOT) Party, Sonny Adenuga, also cautioned the APC against confusing incumbency with permanent political ownership.
Adenuga recalled previous predictions of prolonged political dominance in Nigeria, noting that history had repeatedly shown that political fortunes could change.
He argued that President Bola Tinubu remained the APC’s strongest political asset but said the political contest after his tenure would be different.
According to him, democracy does not guarantee any party perpetual control of government.
Ultimately, the critics agreed that the APC can campaign to retain power, but the outcome of the 2027 and 2031 elections will depend on Nigerian voters.
As Rafsanjani put it, political aspiration must not be mistaken for political entitlement.
